However, the COVID-19 pandemic is creating uncertainties and overshadowing expectations of accelerating U.S. exports and expanding them to these markets affected by ASF. The USDA forecast that U.S. beef production and exports would grow by nearly 3 percent and 6 percent, respectively, in 2020. Since then, the USDA has slightly lowered its forecasts, with the spread of COVID-19 severely affecting the U.S. beef supply chain and suppressing global demand for beef (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2020b). While U.S. beef exports could recover by nearly 9% in 2021 compared to this year (U.S.
Department of Agriculture, 2020a), this improvement may not be solely due to the USJTA, as other extrinsic factors are at play. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2020. Producer price index by raw material for processed food and feed: beef products, fresh or frozen [WPS022101], called by FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. 2019c. Trade agreement between the United States and Japan: subsidiary letter on beef.
Available online: In addition to ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/japan/Letter_Exchange_on_Beef.pdf free trade agreement, the U.S. beef industry will benefit from an overall decrease in meat supply due to an outbreak of African swine fever (UPP) in Asia. The dramatic drop in pork production due to the ASF has generally pushed beef imports to record levels in China, while increasing beef imports to South Korea and Vietnam. In addition, the Canberra Agricultural Affairs Board forecasts that Australian beef production will decline by 11% in 2020 compared to 2019 and exports will decline by 15% due to drought in important production areas in Australia (US Department of Agriculture, 2019b). As Australia struggles to maintain its market due to drought and increased demand in China, the United States should be able to increase its market share in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The Digital Agreement is a separate agreement that establishes rules in the digital space15 The content of the Digital Agreement is practically in line with the provisions of the Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA). Notable provisions include the prohibition of customs duties on content transmitted electronically (e.g.B. software and music) and the recognition of an electronic signature as a legally appropriate means of authentication. This is important as the World Trade Organization (WTO) moratorium on wire transfers will be renewed at the 12th Ministerial Conference in June 2020 (see the next issue of EY Tradewatch for a related article). The TPP – considered one of the most comprehensive free trade agreements in the world (Mukhopadhyay and Thomassin, 2018) – has been at the heart of President Obama`s strategic direction towards Asia (McBride and Chatzky, 2019).
TPP negotiators have attempted to remove non-tariff and tariff barriers and put in place dispute settlement mechanisms that would allow TPP countries to settle disputes outside the WTO. . . .